{
  "design": {
    "declared_before_new_outcomes": true,
    "all_history_exploratory": true,
    "no_tradable_portfolio": true,
    "hypotheses": {
      "earnings": "Same-company / same-broker / same-fiscal-year upward revisions should relate positively to subsequent relative industry prices beyond past momentum. Price-following analyst revisions are a competing explanation.",
      "iv": "Lagged CYB IV should improve future variance forecasts over a calibrated own-realized-variance model. Term slope needs incremental improvement beyond IV level.",
      "transfer": "CYB option information should improve forecasts for the actual selected industry ETF too, not just CYB itself."
    },
    "earnings": {
      "start": "20190701",
      "last_signal": "20260630",
      "prediction_fy": "calendar year of signal, Q4",
      "cut": "previous China session; no same-day reports",
      "snapshots": "Latest report per company/broker/FY in each of two consecutive90-calendar-day windows.",
      "stock": "At least2 matched brokers, positive old and new annual NP; median of same-broker percentage revisions.",
      "industry": "Current SW L1 membership filtered by in_date; min10 valid companies and20% coverage; NOT historical membership.",
      "raw_control": "Legacy recent90 mean / preceding180 mean -1, mixing fiscal years and brokers; same eligible industries.",
      "target": "SW2021 price index from next-session close to22nd-session close (21 returns), no dividends or execution costs; diagnostic only.",
      "control": "Per-date rank correlation residualized on ranks of index40-session momentum and60-session variance, min15 industries.",
      "inference": "Mean monthly IC; 6-month moving-block bootstrap2000; no multiple-search adjustment; pre/after20240812."
    },
    "volatility": {
      "start": "20220919",
      "features": "Previous China session own60-session mean squared return*244, CYB IV30 squared, log(IV30/IV90). No filling.",
      "target": "20 daily squared returns, from signal+2 through signal+21; matches holding after next-close entry.",
      "cases": [
        "CYB",
        "actual_industry_holding"
      ],
      "holding": "Baseline post-close largest actual industry weight; exclude cash dates; measure fixed ETF future risk, not changing portfolio.",
      "models": [
        "persistence",
        "rv_calibrated",
        "rv_plus_iv",
        "rv_plus_iv_term"
      ],
      "training": "Monthly expanding OLS of log future variance; min126 complete prior observations; label end strictly before refit day.",
      "loss": "QLIKE ratio loss and mean absolute log variance error; common evaluation dates; monthly-cluster 3-month moving-block bootstrap2000.",
      "guard": "variance floor1e-8 and ceiling4 for numerical stability, fixed before results.",
      "verdict": "Increment must lower both errors overall and in both available early/late segments; QLIKE paired95% upper bound below0 supports increment. Missing segment means insufficient evidence."
    },
    "no_research_grid": true,
    "no_cagr_target_screening": true,
    "source_caveats": [
      "Current industry membership",
      "Report history lacks first-ingestion vintages and analyst IDs",
      "SW price index is not a directly traded ETF",
      "CYB IV settlement/fixed-rate approximation",
      "Known prior history has been explored"
    ]
  },
  "earnings": {
    "design": {
      "start": "20190701",
      "last_signal": "20260630",
      "prediction_fy": "calendar year of signal, Q4",
      "cut": "previous China session; no same-day reports",
      "snapshots": "Latest report per company/broker/FY in each of two consecutive90-calendar-day windows.",
      "stock": "At least2 matched brokers, positive old and new annual NP; median of same-broker percentage revisions.",
      "industry": "Current SW L1 membership filtered by in_date; min10 valid companies and20% coverage; NOT historical membership.",
      "raw_control": "Legacy recent90 mean / preceding180 mean -1, mixing fiscal years and brokers; same eligible industries.",
      "target": "SW2021 price index from next-session close to22nd-session close (21 returns), no dividends or execution costs; diagnostic only.",
      "control": "Per-date rank correlation residualized on ranks of index40-session momentum and60-session variance, min15 industries.",
      "inference": "Mean monthly IC; 6-month moving-block bootstrap2000; no multiple-search adjustment; pre/after20240812."
    },
    "audit": {
      "report_count": 1288235,
      "first": "20190102",
      "last": "20260720",
      "stock_count": 4661,
      "invalid_quarter_rows": 0,
      "membership_rows": 5847,
      "membership_stocks": 5847,
      "membership_with_exit": 0,
      "latest_panel_mode": "em_forecast_growth",
      "latest_panel_note": "Tushare report_rc 上游停在 2026-07-20；本次切换为东方财富最新盈利预测快照。数值=2026预测每股收益相对2025预测每股收益的申万一级行业中位数，不是历史预测修正；数据抓取日为今日。",
      "mixed_forecast_company_days": 280399
    },
    "coverage": [
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        "matched_companies": 667,
        "broker_pairs": 3589,
        "qualified_industries": 9,
        "last_report": "20190730"
      },
      {
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        "qualified_industries": 23,
        "last_report": "20190829"
      },
      {
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        "last_report": "20190927"
      },
      {
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        "last_report": "20191030"
      },
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        "qualified_industries": 22,
        "last_report": "20191128"
      },
      {
        "date": "20191231",
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        "last_report": "20191230"
      },
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        "date": "20200123",
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        "last_report": "20200122"
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        "last_report": "20200227"
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        "last_report": "20200330"
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        "last_report": "20200429"
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        "last_report": "20200528"
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    ],
    "summary": {
      "all": {
        "months": 26,
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        "metrics": {
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        "metrics": {
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